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Carbon Emission Reduction Potential of Hydrogen Production for Large-Scale Industrial Facilities in Southeast Asia

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Making use of hydrogen demand and supply forecasts reported by ERIA (2024) for the oil refining, ammonia, methanol, and steel industries in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, this paper studies the carbon emission reduction potential of blue and green hydrogen for these large-scale industries until 2050. Future hydrogen supply and demand under the International Energy Agency’s announced pledges scenario are examined for each of these four industrial sectors, the corresponding carbon emissions calculated, and their future carbon emission reduction potential estimated. The potential of ammonia fuels and methanol for e-fuels is also considered. Levelised cost of hydrogen estimates and various carbon price scenarios are studied to calculate the government subsidies required to help finance the transition from grey to green and blue hydrogen production in the four industrial sectors in Southeast Asia in the coming decades. The insights gained inform policy strategies for a future industrial hydrogen decarbonisation transition.

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